Wednesday, July 13, 2005

« Midseason recap: Playoff odds, awards »

By Suss
Half the season is over, and the second act resumes Thursday.

So what are the odds for all 30 teams making the playoffs?

How I came up with the numbers: 100 percentage points are allotted to each division, with an extra 100 points for each league to factor in the Wild Card spot.

AL East
Boston: 45. Curt Schilling's off the DL, and they have a slight lead. Start your engines.
New York: 45. So inconsistent they could go on a tear, pick up somebody, lose a few, then win a bunch more.
Baltimore: 10. Going down fast. Erik Bedard's return won't save them.
Toronto: 5. An even record in an eccentric division? Only 5.5 back, although Halladay's injury hurts them a bunch.
Tampa Bay: NO CHANCE. Delmon Young and B.J. Upton should get called up soon, giving the fans at least something to watch.

AL Central
Chicago: 95. Hard to think they'll blow a 9-game lead.
Minnesota: 35. The Bret Boone waiver acquisition will add some runs to that lineup.
Cleveland: 30. Wild Card aspirations very much alive, now that their manager is clean shaven.
Detroit: 5. Too little too late, but they'll be fun to watch. Can Bonderman win 20 after losing 19 two years ago?
Kansas City: NO CHANCE. Rebuilding and hurt. Playing hard, though, given who they got.

AL West
Anaheim: 85. Lost four straight before the break, still 5 games ahead.
Oakland: 25. Beane's boys shut everyone up after a rough start, and they're hotter than Quizno's subs.
Texas: 15. Kenny Rogers hurt the team that fateful day. We all saw it thanks to the cameraman who wasn't pushed.
Seattle: 5. They've got the players and more consistent pitching, but they're way back in last, 9 1/2 back for WC.

NL East Washington: 55. 16 games over .500, given up 4 more runs than they've scored. You figure it out.
Atlanta: 60. They haven't lost a division in 13 years, so why would they miss the playoffs?
Florida: 20. Big disappointment 7 games back.
Philadelphia: 10. Billy Wagner said the team doesn't know how to win. He's right. New York: 5. They're finally healthy, but not moving up in the standings.

NL Central
St. Louis: 100. Eleven-and-a-half game advantages are hard to lose.
Houston: 30. The NL's version of Oakland. Don't count them out either.
Chicago: 15. Another major injury and the team's done. Derrek Lee will be chasing history without his team. Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati: NO CHANCE. Ranked in order of promise for next year, starting with the highest.

NL West
San Diego: 85. The only team in that division with any consistency.
Arizona, Los Angeles: 10. They're both veteran ball clubs with one or two major holes. Whether it's the D-Backs bullpen or LA's injured outfield, their only chance is to catch San Diego.
San Francisco, Colorado: NO CHANCE. The Giants have no Bonds and no pitching depth. As for the Rockies, well, let's just say Todd Helton only has 39 RBI and leave it at that.

Predictions for awards:
AL MVP: Miguel Tejada, Orioles. His team likely won't make the playoffs, but the lineup is basically intact, and with Rafael Palmeiro's increased performance, he'll have a bit of protection and see enough pitches to put up MVP numbers.
NL MVP: Albert Pujols, Cardinals. Al is more likely to keep the numbers high than Derrek Lee is to win the Triple Crown. AL Cy Young: Mark Buehrle, White Sox. He's the best pitcher on the best team. If his ERA stays under 3.00 in the league of the DH, he'll be a lock to win it.
NL Cy Young: Chris Carpenter, Cardinals. As everyone will continue to be awestruck by Rocket and D-Train, Carpenter will saw and nail his way to the award.
AL Rookie: Tadahito Iguchi, White Sox. Leads rookies in batting average, hits, at-bats, runs and stolen bases.
NL Rookie: Ryan Church, Nationals. He leads all rookies with a .924 OPS, including a .325 average for a team without a true superstar. He's just one of the gang.
AL Manager: Ozzie Guillen, White Sox. Clearly his mentality was the difference in turning them from a promising team to a winning one.
NL Manager: Bobby Cox, Braves. Frank Robinson deserves it too, but if they both make the playoffs, Bobby managed several AA players for a couple months to keep them in it.


Anonymous cg said...

It seems as though you are counting Baltimore out a little too fast. They just took three of four from the Red Sox and are only two games back. It seems as though they might be Bedard, Javy, and a player to be named later away from surprising the AL East.

It is certainly hard to believe that the Chicago White Sox would blow a nine game lead, but it has happened before(correct me if i'm wrong, but i believe they blew a large lead last year to the Twins or at least two years ago the Twins caught a team that was 7 and a half games ahead).

I'm also unsure how you calculated these odds.

July 14, 2005 8:24 AM  

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